“Scenario planning” is a creative approach to planning that produces excellent results for organizations as they plan for their future. This approach involves organizational leaders in a dynamic process of exploring proactive movement forward during uncertain and changing times.

The scenario planning process moves the organization through a series of steps from considering all their POSSIBLE futures to a shorter list of PROBABLE futures to their chosen or PREFERRED future:

From Possible futures . . .
Step 1: Each participant in the planning process is invited to brainstorm (every idea is a good idea) some “what-if” scenarios about the future of the organization. These what-ifs can range from maintaining the status quo to closing the organization or any other possible future that reflects the hopes and dreams of the planners.

Step 2: In small groups of four or five each individual shares his/her “what-ifs” with a brief rationale about the merits of each. (As each idea is brought forward, its proponent receives a round of applause to affirm that every idea is a good idea.)

Step 3: Each small group chooses no more than three priority scenarios and prepares a one-paragraph rationale to be shared with the larger group.

Step 4: The small groups present their scenarios to the larger group which welcomes all the scenarios as gifts for further consideration. Any duplicate scenarios are combined.

. . . to Probable futures . . .
Step 5: The large group discusses each possible future identified above is, and identifies pros and cons as well as intended and unintended consequences.

Step 6: Participants are invited to establish a priority of possible scenarios. One way to do this is to give each participant 25 “dollars” to spend on 10-15 possible futures, with no more than $10 spent on any one scenario.

Step 7: The results of the prioritizing exercise are tabulated and the top four to six scenarios are named as Probable futures.

. . . toward a Preferred future.
Step 8: Two-person teams are selected to be advocates for each probable scenario. The teams prepare a 10-15 minute presentation on why their scenario offers the more life-giving future for the organization, and they respond to questions or concerns raised by the larger group.

Step 9: The larger group enters into a period of individual and communal reflection focused on the organization’s needs and the scenarios presented.

Step 10: The participants select their Preferred future and identify the goals, objectives and action steps that will be a central part of a detailed and comprehensive transition plan to help the organization move consciously and confidently into its Preferred future.

The Reid Group has assisted many organizations choose their Preferred future through scenario planning. For a more detailed description of the process, see The Art of Change: Faith, Vision and Prophetic Planning by John Reid and Maureen Gallagher.

John Reid, Senior Consultant
The Reid Group